Health Modelling Centre Cymru (HMC2) is an initiative of the Wales Institute of Mathematical and Computational Sciences (WIMCS) which builds out from the current expertise in this field across Wales, fostering collaboration across different research areas of the mathematical and computational sciences, to create a more vibrant and effective interface between the mathematical research community, the medical research community, NHS Wales, The Welsh Assembly Government and the Health Industry.

The opening event was held on 7th May and presentations can be accessed below

WIMCS Director Prof T Lyons; hmc2 director Prof P Harper; hmc2 codirector Prof P Nithiarasu; Prof M W Carter (Toronto); Dr A Willson (NHS Wales)

Activities within this all-Wales centre focus on producing high quality research, transitioning that research into effective outcomes, building capacity, and promoting the interaction between mathematical and computational modelling and better health delivery.

Our objectives are to contribute to the science base, to facilitate innovative individualised clinical approaches, and lead to strategies for more effective and efficient healthcare and service delivery across Wales and beyond.


HMC2 is under the directorship of Prof. Paul Harper (Head of the WIMCS OR and Statistics Cluster, WIMCS & Cardiff University) and co-directorship of Prof. Perumal Nithiarasu (WIMCS Computational Cluster & Swansea University).

Prof Harper is well known for his work applying OR to healthcare decision making; Prof. Nithiarasu’s work on computational modelling of fluid flows allows clinical decisions relating to coronary procedures to take account of subtle individual differences between patients. Both have attracted substantial research funding. They bring substantial and complimentary experiences to the centre.

An advisory board will oversee the activities and future plans of the centre.


hmc2 brings expertise in a range of different mathematical and computational modelling techniques applied to health. This builds on the strengths of the research activities and interest of WIMCS members, and the five associated clusters: Analysis; Computational Modelling; Mathematical Physics; Stochastics; Statistics and Operational Research (OR).

Previous and on-going modelling projects have helped examine hospital waiting lists, intensive care provision, operating theatre performance and the modelling of bed-blocking in UK hospitals. OR modelling techniques have also been used to help inform policy on breast cancer screening and targeted screening strategies for Chlamydia.

Modelling is also currently being used to help support the improved delivery of ambulance response times for the Welsh Ambulance Service. In addition, various cardiovascular and respiratory flow modelling projects are also investigated to improve diagnosis and to reduce clinician time. Modelling efforts are also underway to reduce problems associated with breathing and breathing disorders. The strong collaboration hmc2 will have with the Welsh clinicians is expected to have a major impact towards better healthcare in Wales.

Other on-going projects include:

  • Dynamical control of epidemic propagation
  • Using meteorological Information to improve the planning and management of health services
  • Multiscale medial axis and medical image processing
  • Macroscopic blood flow visualization
  • Predictive tools for discrete microfluidics
  • Artificial ultrasound imagery
  • Forecasting demand for ambulances and time-dependent workforce scheduling
  • Asymptotic modelling of contact mechanics for different stages of arthritis
  • Cardiac and respiratory image processing using deformable resources
  • Modelling rehabilitation care-pathways and associated references
  • Respiratory and arterial flow modelling
  • Mesh generation
  • Aortic valve stenosis modelling


Stephen Williamson
01792 602854

Paul Harper
029 2087 6841

Perumal Nithiarasu
01792 513267

Wales Institute of Mathematical and Computatuional Sciences